Flathead Happenings

Calgary Vacation Home Show

2010-01-13T09:05:00.000-08:00

I am heading out tomorrow to exhibit at the Calgary Herald Recreation and Investment Property Show that is part of the HomeExp at the BMO Centre in Calgary. We will be profiling all of our Montana listings and raffling off a Stay & Ski package in Whitefish, and a 2-night Stay package at Marina Cay in Bigfork.

If you are going to be in Calgary this weekend, give me a call and I will get you free tickets!

Happy New Year!

2010-01-05T14:10:00.000-08:00

The new year is here and I wish everyone the very best!

We finally got our first real snowstorm this week after a week of balmy 40's. Time to get out there and do some turns!

Glacier National Park Centennial

2009-10-09T10:36:00.000-07:00

Glacier National Park is ramping up for its centennial celebration in 2010. There are a ton of legacy projects, programs and events that have already begun. Be sure to check out http://www.glaciercentennial.org/ for more info and to plan your trip!

Baldy Fire

2009-09-29T12:42:00.000-07:00

We had a very eventful weekend with the Baldy Fire in Lakeside. The cause is still being investigated, but it started on the night of the 26th and exploded from 30 acres to 200 acres by the following evening with gusty winds overnight. The local, county, state, and federal agencies all worked together seamlessly to achieve 100% containment by 6p on the 28th! Several homes were evacuated, but no structures were lost and nobody was injured. While we are blessed to have some of the most committed and talented firefighters in the nation, it is also a good reminder to make your Montana home firewise and create plenty of defensible space. To see more details on this fire, go to http://inciweb.org/incident/1905/.

First Half of 2009 Sales Data for Flathead Valley

2009-07-14T09:09:00.000-07:00

Below is a table of all sales comparing sales from the first half of 2009 by segment with sales from the first half of 2008.

The Tipping Point of Supply and Demand

2009-05-27T20:11:00.000-07:00

The National Association of Realtors reported today that existing home sales for April increased 2.9 percent, but were still down 3.5 percent from April of 2008. From a trending standpoint, many experts get the feeling that we are bouncing along the bottom...which is certainly better than still free-falling!

If you look at the major factors that create positive or negative buying conditions in the market, all signs point to favorable conditions.

Interest Rates at Historic Lows
Inventory at Very High Levels
Median Prices Low
Home Prices at or Below Replacement Cost
Government Incentives at All-time Highs ($8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit)

The only two factors in my opinion that continues to keep buyers out of the market are a) decrease in capital/equity and b) fear of further price reductions in the market.

The continued rebound of the stock prices for undervalued companies continues, and April consumer confidence was at its highest since September of 2008 - this should begin to ease the first negative factor. Further price reductions in the market will continue to be resisted by the replacement cost factor. Homes that can be purchased well below the cost to build will not stay in inventory for long. This is particularly true for areas like rural Montana where an land and hungry contractors abound!

Overall, I truly believe these positive factors will begin to lure buyers back to the market as there are opportunities that just cannot be passed up!

Affordable Housing Segment Holds Up

2009-04-23T13:31:00.000-07:00

While the overall market is significantly down, when the residential sector is analyzed by price segments, it is easy to see where the biggest declines have taken place. The entire residential market showed a drop of 46% from Q1 2008 to the first quarter of this year. However, the segment at $200,000 or less only dropped 10% over the same period. The higher-priced segments decreased significantly more.

Is the Free-Fall Over?

2009-04-23T13:27:00.000-07:00

The most challenging and often impossible thing to do when analyzing changing markets is to ‘call the bottom’ of a downswing. The national and local media has been covering the recession daily along with the volatile swings in the stock market and soaring foreclosure rates in the real estate sector. Yet there have been a few preliminary signs of recovery in the first quarter of 2009. The national and local markets are beginning to see month-over-month increases, although it may be 2010 before we see the year-over-year increases and know when the actual bottom of the market occurred.

Leading factors for the potential recovery of the housing market include low interest rates, low home prices, and first-time home buyer incentives. These factors will certainly increase the sales volume of the first-time buyer market segment, but does not do much to help the vacation and second-home end of the market here in the Flathead. Ultimately, if the value segment of the market demonstrates a healthy and consistent recovery, other segments are sure to follow with increased buyer confidence. These increases, however, will be severely tempered by reduced buyer equity across the board.

Flathead Lake Inventory, Prices Finally Easing

2009-03-04T12:46:00.000-08:00

The sales data pretty much sums up the current market for Flathead Lake waterfront properties. There have been no sales of land or residential waterfront listings since the first of the year!

Frontage prices showed very minimal decreases for the 2008 year over 2007, but the slowing that started in the 4th quarter of 2008 is now in full swing for the first quarter of 2009.

Prices have begun to come down for waterfront properties, as the listing pool becomes more reflective of serious sellers. The reality is that there are few waterfront owners that are in a truly motivated selling position. Many of these properties are vacation homes, and most owners can afford to hold on to them through our current economic crisis.

Buyers are continuing to wait out the current retracting market trend to ensure they enter the market at the bottom, or once recovery has begun. Most investment buyers are looking for great deals - and the properties that are softest in pricing have been under $500,000. However, I expect waterfront to continue to soften up a bit this summer - creating some great buying opportunities for savvy and patient buyers.

Montana Home Values Staying Afloat

2009-02-24T12:30:00.000-08:00

(Scott Rickard, Center for Applied Economic Research, MSU Billings)

At a recent economic outlook seminar, a large audience in Kalispell was treated to presentations by leading economic researchers. Topics ranged from transportation and agriculture to tourism and real estate.

One statistic shared from the real estate presentation caught me by surprise and I thought it was worth sharing. I've posted the graph here of home values for the state of Montana for the past 5 years. While the downturn in the market has significantly hampered value increases down to 2.5% for 2008, they have still not gone negative.

Perhaps by now (heading into Q2 of 2009) the numbers have continued to plummet and we are on the negative side, but this is still more positive data than I would have expected. Another caveat to the data is that it is statewide, taking into account several smaller communities that have not seen the dramatic increase and subsequent decrease in home values over the past several years.

Do You Feel Stimulated?

2009-02-18T10:44:00.001-08:00

President Obama signed his historic 'spendulus' package into law yesterday in an effort to jump start an ailing economy. I had the unique opportunity to meet with one of our Senators - Jon Tester in Kalispell on the same day - ironically just a few hours before the signing ceremony took place in Denver.

It was not a private meeting by any means - I doubt he will remember my name, but I hope he will remember my few words in our brief conversation.

He had scheduled an invitation only meeting in Kalispell with select business and community leaders. News of the meeting had leaked to the Daily Interlake the day before - once it was plastered on the front page, it had to become a semi-public meeting. Only 30-40 people could squeeze into the Chamber meeting room, and about 20 or so had been invited. I was not on the invite list and crashed the party. My takeaway was our Senator coming home to the local market to display the spoils of his efforts in DC - and for local supporters to line up for handouts.

My few words with the Senator after the meeting were just a polite request to do all he could to make sure this unprecedented spending was as stimulative as possible and not just a politically driven 'money-grab' for those who are lined up at the trough.

The only silver lining I can hope for is that the continued negative impact these developments have on the stock market will drive more investors to choose real estate as a secure, long-term investment that they can enjoy over the years.

Waterfront Market Report - February 2009

2009-02-09T12:07:00.000-08:00

Welcome to the February issue of the Waterfront Market Report! This is a monthly electronic publication designed specifically to communicate Flathead Lake Waterfront real estate data to select clients.

My goal is to provide concise and practical information to individuals with an interest in the local real estate market.

If you have questions at any time, please feel free to Email or call.

Best Regards,
David

Active Flathead Lake Waterfront Listings

The data above represents all Flathead Lake frontage land and residential listings and excludes condominiums and townhomes.
(Source: NMAR)

Analysis
The present market for Flathead Lake Waterfront real estate continues to look grim. There were no sales of land or residential waterfront listings for the month of January.

Buyers are continuing to wait out the current retracting market trend to ensure they enter the market at the bottom, or once recovery has begun.

2008 Sold Data
Frontage Value/Linear Foot

High
$ 13,696
Low
$ 2,436
Average
$ 7,001

Cold Weather Putting the Freeze on Sales

2009-01-28T12:04:00.000-08:00

It appears that the cold and icy weather is adding to the continuing trend of dismal sales in NW Montana. It will be a few more weeks until the January numbers are in, but it would appear that we are lagging behing 2008 numbers anywhere between 30-50%.

The good news is that inventory is beginning to dip a bit. I've been trying to spread the word to all homeowners that they should only list their property if they abosolutely have to sell. It boggles my mind that there are still listings out there that are 'fishing' for top dollar offers in this market.

There also seems to be limited activity in listing and showing property that would otherwise be active due to the snow and ice left over from last month's storms. I think we are all hoping that the market will begin to thaw before the ice!

Annual Report Summary

2009-01-22T11:52:00.000-08:00

The Northwest Montana real estate market succumbed to the national trend and plummeted in 2008. The market showed relative insulation throughout most of 2007, but could not hold out last year. Total sales volume for 2008 was approximately $546 million, down 41% from 2007. Transactions also showed a drastic drop of 36% last year compared to 2007. This downturn comes on the heels of a historic and unsustainable real estate boon that lasted for several years. While the recession and a down market will certainly be painful in the short term, prices have begun to realign, and interest rates for qualified loans have reached extraordinary lows.

One thing that history teaches us is that market cycles are healthy and should be expected. The complicated aspect to these cycles is their unpredictability. Some analysts predict a rebound beginning in the 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2009. While signs of recovery are yet to be seen, we can be assured that there will be continued incentives over the coming months to entice buyers back into the market.